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Palm oil production is in its peak season, but demand has plummeted sharply. However, expectations for biodiesel policy support remain, making prices stagnant and revealing a countdown to a directional choice for palm oil.

The head of fixed income at the company's Australian division, Siniakov, stated that over the past month he has increased his holdings in five-year US inflation swaps, expecting consumer prices to accelerate. He pointed out that it may take several months for oil transportation to return to pre-war levels, and that services such as Uber have started to implement fuel surcharges, indicating that cost pressures are being passed on to end users. "This won't be resolved quickly," Siniakov said. He mentioned that the potential medium-term inflation pressures from this issue have not been fully appreciated. Siniakov said that he bought five-year US inflation swaps, expecting the rate to rise to around 3% to 3.25%. Currently, the rate is about 2.59%, and the last time it exceeded 3% was in the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

Aluminum prices have soared to a four-year high! Following the attack on a Middle Eastern smelter and the indefinite delay in resuming production, the interplay between low inventory and heightened geopolitical risks is reshaping the ceiling for aluminum prices.