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⑴ In terms of crude oil, during the holiday, the US and Iran held two rounds of indirect negotiations, and Trump still retains the option of taking military action, so the geopolitical crisis has not been completely resolved. SC crude oil, which closely follows overseas markets, as well as downstream petroleum products such as fuel oil, are experiencing strong cost-side fluctuations. It is recommended to closely monitor the third round of Geneva negotiations on Thursday. ⑵ Regarding fuel oil, during the holiday, the previously anticipated US-Iran peace talks did not achieve substantive progress, and the possibility of US military intervention in Iran still exists. Domestic high-sulfur fuel oil is highly dependent on imports, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 20% of domestic imports. If the negotiation results are unsatisfactory, there is a possibility of military intervention. However, the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations remains highly uncertain, so it is advisable to go long at low levels but not to chase high prices. ⑶ In terms of glass, there was no further progress in the cold repair of production lines in Shahe during the holiday. After the holiday, the first day back to the market saw stable or slightly increased prices among Shahe market enterprises, with most prices stable today and some slightly raised by 10 yuan/ton. Midstream players are mainly stocking up and picking up goods, while downstream procurement is limited. In the short term, the main contract's premium over spot is not high. If unplanned cold repairs continue to materialize or if demand during the peak construction season in March and April exceeds seasonal performance, there are still opportunities to go long on dips. ⑷ Regarding soda ash, there was no significant change in the supply and demand pattern during the holiday. After the holiday, the domestic soda ash market remained generally stable, with equipment shutdowns and technical upgrades at Sichuan Hebang triggering a rise in futures prices. Some enterprises slightly raised their quotations, and the soda ash capacity utilization rate is 84.89%. Today's basis quotations: Hebei warehouse delivery 05-20 to 40, Shahe 05-20 to 05 flat, Hubei warehouse delivery 05-20. Overall, the short-term macro environment is relatively warm, and soda ash may see a short-term rebound, so a slightly positive outlook is warranted. In the medium term, supply remains high, post-holiday demand is average, and the driving force is limited, so the upside may also be limited. ⑸ For caustic soda, during the Spring Festival, some enterprises in Shandong operated at less than full capacity due to difficulties in liquid chlorine sales, and alkali plant inventories were better than expected before the holiday, with prices rising at some low-inventory enterprises. Today, some low-inventory enterprises in Shandong continued to raise prices by 10-20 yuan/ton. The short-term market performance is acceptable, but the possibility of further widespread price increases has weakened. Overall, current caustic soda plant operations remain at a high level, and there has not been a sustained reduction in supply. Post-holiday downstream resumption of work and restocking demand have not been fully released, and with warehouse inventories remaining high and prices still at a premium to spot, willingness to accept goods is weak, so pressure is expected to persist. ⑹ Regarding methanol, today's spot price in Taicang is 2,231 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; Inner Mongolia North Line price is 1,867.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Today, the methanol market failed to continue the post-holiday first day's upward trend, with futures fluctuating and weakening, the inland methanol market experiencing narrow fluctuations, and port spot negotiations and transactions being average. Today's data show that methanol inventories at ports and inland increased by 14,500 tons and 195,000 tons, respectively. Close attention should be paid to the resumption pace of Middle East methanol projects and changes in port inventories.

The report shows that the company’s same-store sales growth, pre-tax profit margin, and diluted earnings per share in the fourth quarter all significantly exceeded the previously set targets. In addition, the company also announced its future capital return plan. Management expects to increase the dividend payout ratio by 13% in fiscal year 2027, while also planning to repurchase between $2.5 billion and $2.75 billion worth of the company’s common stock.

⑴ During the Spring Festival holiday, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s global tariff policy was illegal. However, the ruling only restricts the president from imposing tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and does not completely strip the president of the power to levy tariffs. Trump had previously imposed additional tariffs on products such as copper, steel, and aluminum based on other trade laws, which are not affected. Coupled with the escalation of US-Iran military confrontation, the macro environment provides support for copper prices. It is worth noting that there is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Due to insufficient reasons for a rate cut, subsequent policies may lean towards tightening. In addition, with a weak fundamental outlook, prices may find it difficult to continue rising.⑵ Last Friday, the US Supreme Court overturned Trump’s emergency tariff order, after which Trump announced the implementation of a new comprehensive tariff policy, and the uncertainty of the tariff plan continues. On the fundamentals side, both supply and demand for zinc ingots are weak during the off-season, and short-term fluctuations are expected to dominate.⑶ In terms of precious metals, on the 20th local time, the US Supreme Court ruled Trump’s global tariff policy illegal. However, the ruling only restricts the president from imposing tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and does not completely strip the president of the power to levy tariffs. After the Supreme Court decision was announced, Trump announced the imposition of “global import tariffs,” which will continue to provide medium-term support for precious metals. Currently, the proportion of registered silver warehouse receipts remains at a low level, providing short-term support for silver prices. Silver prices may continue to fluctuate sharply in the future, and traders need to strictly control their positions.⑷ Regarding alumina, the market remained relatively stable during the Spring Festival, with a slight decline in the pre-holiday alumina operating rate, indicating marginal improvement in supply. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the intensity of new production and production cuts. However, due to limited demand growth and the export window not yet open, overall inventory continues to accumulate, and the industry remains oversupplied. In the short term, it is still recommended to treat the market as range-bound, while in the medium to long term, pay attention to potential low-buying opportunities.⑸ For aluminum and cast aluminum, the strong performance of LME aluminum during the Spring Festival holiday led to a slight increase in Shanghai aluminum after the holiday. With a generally bullish macro environment both domestically and internationally, positive demand expectations, and tightening supply expectations, the medium- to long-term upward outlook for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum remains unchanged. In the short to medium term, it is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long. On the supply side, keep an eye on overseas developments, while on the demand side, closely monitor the intensity of downstream procurement after domestic resumption of work and the pace of inventory reduction.⑹ Regarding lithium carbonate, there has been a lot of positive news recently, with significant capital inflows after the holiday. Zimbabwe has banned all exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, and the electronic trading price has risen by more than 10,000 points compared to 3 p.m. In the short term, a buy-on-dip strategy is recommended. Going forward, it is necessary to focus on the realization of demand expectations and the pace of inventory changes. In addition, be alert to unexpected changes on the supply side and in the macro environment.