News

Golden Ten Data reported on April 30 that, according to a document from the U.S. Court of International Trade, the first batch of refunds for tariffs imposed on imported goods under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act by the Trump administration will be issued around May 11. On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court announced its ruling, finding that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs. On March 4, a judge from the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that U.S. Customs and Border Protection may not levy tariffs during customs clearance based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This means that tariffs previously imposed under this law must be refunded.

Although the Federal Reserve's March dot plot indicates one rate cut in 2026, considering that three voting members have explicitly opposed retaining a “dovish bias” for further rate cuts in the statement, Powell’s retention as Fed governor, repeated flare-ups in the Middle East, and another surge in oil prices, we believe the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026 has risen. There is also the possibility that the Fed could remove its rate cut guidance from the dot plot at the June meeting. Looking ahead, easing tensions in the Middle East will drive oil prices lower; coupled with the fading impact of tariffs, US inflation may moderate. In the second quarter, marginal cooling in new non-farm payrolls and a seasonal rise in the unemployment rate may create conditions for 1-2 rate cuts in the second half of the year, but the prospect of rate cuts has become increasingly uncertain.

Golden Ten Data reported on April 30th that, according to a research report by China Securities, the shipping industry is currently in a decade-long upward boom cycle. The core supporting logic for the industry is the iteration and renewal of existing shipping capacity, coupled with increasingly stringent environmental protection policies. Affected by external events, there is a divergence and rotation in the prosperity of specific ship types. At present, crude oil shipping rates remain high, leading to a surge in tanker orders. New ship orders have seen significant growth for five consecutive months since November 2025, and total tanker orders for the year are expected to remain at high levels. Looking ahead, bulk carrier orders may take over as the main line of prosperity in the next phase. In April, the new shipbuilding price index steadily increased on a weekly basis. Leading mainstream shipyards have already locked in orders until 2029–2030, indicating that the industry remains a seller's market with a tight supply-demand structure. The outlook for the sector remains positive.